Todo por la patria. Individual, local and spatial contagion effects of military association and radical right-wing support

Autor principal:
Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte (University of Southampton)
Autores:
Francisco Villamil Fernández (ETH Zurich)
José Rama Caamaño (Universidad Autónoma de Madrid)
Programa:
Sesión 4, Sesión 4
Día: jueves, 8 de julio de 2021
Hora: 09:00 a 10:45
Lugar: Online

Little is known about how the association with the armed forces influences voting for the populist radical right (PRR). In this paper, we advance the theory that individual and local-level associations with the military drives support for PRRPs by consolidating national and authoritarian values amongst those exposed to military activity. Empirically, we leverage three distinct analyses to test this thesis. First, relying on cumulative national barometer data, we demonstrate that individual military personnel are significantly more prone to support Spain's PRRP, VOX. Second, creating an original dataset that combines the spatial location of military barracks and polling sttaion-level electoral outcomes, we show that the localised electoral victories of the radical right are in part driven by the presence of higher concentration of military personnel. Thirdly, leveraging spatial regression models, we provide evidence of localised contagion effects. Our results provide substantive evidence of the role of military associations in explaining the localised electoral victory of PRRPs. Not only do electoral districts that host military barracks provide significant electoral returns for the radical right, but the presence of these military bases engenders a significant diffusion effect that results in a contagious increase in the radical right's electoral gains in neighbouring districts

Palabras clave: authoritarianism, electoral contagion, military, radical right, spatial analysis, VOX