Electoral participation and partisan affective polarisation: A two-wave panel study of the association between out-group animosity and propensity to vote in Spain

Autor principal:
Danilo Serani (DRU - Universidad de Salamanca)
Programa:
Sesión 8, Sesión 8
Día: viernes, 9 de julio de 2021
Hora: 11:00 a 12:45
Lugar: Online

Do affectively polarised people vote or stay at home on Election Day? Although plenty of studies have analysed the origins and foundations of partisan affective polarisation, little is known about its impact on individuals’ decision to vote. This article takes a closer look at the relationship between propensity to vote and partisan affective polarisation in Spain. This topic is especially interesting in the Spanish context, given the country’s recent change from a two-party to a multiparty system and the increasing out-group animosity among Spaniards. The results show that polarised people are more likely to vote in elections than those with a more neutral posture. Nevertheless, such relationship is not lineal but rather curvilineal: while too much and too little polarisation decrease the chances of casting a vote, medium levels of polarisation contribute to an increase in an individual’s likelihood to go to the polls on Election Day as a way to express their support for their own preferred party. These arguments will be tested by relying on a cross-lagged structural equation model, which has been performed on a two-wave panel study conducted in Spain between April and May 2019.

Palabras clave: Partisan affective polarisation, voting behaviour, panel data, Spain, propensity to voting