Over the past decade, strategic narratives aimed at delegitimising electoral procedures, institutions, and political actors have spread across liberal democracies, including within the European Union. At the same time, transformations in the international system are increasingly affecting the quality and stability of elections worldwide. On the one hand, the weakening of Western support for democratisation may undermine democratic resilience in the Global South, lowering the costs of authoritarian behaviour and democratic backsliding in vulnerable states. On the other hand, shifts in the United States’ global posture—see the 2025 US National Security Strategy — can introduce an additional and qualitatively different source of electoral pressure. Alongside established actors such as Russia, this raises the possibility of an illiberal "gang-up" scenario with a “multi-source” pressure environment affecting elections both in the EU’s neighbourhood and within its member states.

To date, European policy responses have largely focused on Foreign Information Manipulation and Interference (FIMI), primarily associated with Russia and, to a lesser extent, China. While FIMI captures intentional, coordinated, and manipulative information operations, it does not fully encompass other forms of foreign electoral influence that are overall overt and non-manipulative, yet still consequential for democratic integrity and security.

This paper proposes an operational framework that conceptualises Foreign Electoral Influence (FEI) through four mechanisms—persuasion, coercion, amplification, and manipulation (FIMI)—and examines how they interact with electoral dynamics. Specifically, the framework links these mechanisms to the escalation of elections from polarised to disputed and ultimately to contentious elections. In doing so, it aspires to contribute to the development of non-partisan democratic protection measures and to the refinement of security responses to foreign influence in the European context.